New model results explore different energy futures for New Zealand


BEC, EECA and PSI launched the New Zealand Energy Scenarios TIMES-NZ 2.0 to help government, business and university leaders make better informed decisions in a world of growing uncertainty.

BEC Executive Director Tina Schirr said TIMES-NZ 2.0 explores possible energy futures based on two contrasting scenarios.

Kea represents a future in which climate change is seen as the most pressing issue, while Tui represents a future in which climate change is one of many competing priorities.

“These are by no means prescriptive paths but help us to reflect on the uncertainties facing the energy sector, such as the acceleration of a deeper and more affordable decarbonisation, future mobility but also energy security, of structured and methodical manner. “

According to the results of the new model, in each scenario, fossil fuel use declines and energy emissions drop dramatically, says Tina Schirr.

Overall, in both scenarios, the demand for fossil fuels increases from around 63% of energy demand (excluding raw materials) in 2018 to around 22% under Kea and 33% under Tui in 2050, and in some sectors, including road transport, agribusiness, and residential and commercial, falls to a small fraction of current levels.

“Transformation is on the horizon and Kiwi needs to start thinking about what to sell to the rest of the world as we move into a low carbon economy.”

Both scenarios make extensive use of energy efficiency, with the adoption of more efficient technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, resulting in significantly reduced energy consumption. For example, road transport energy consumption per distance traveled decreases by almost 80% due to the adoption of EVs. Both scenarios foresee a transition from the light fleet to almost entirely electric, Kea by 2050 and Tui by 2055.

At the same time, it is clear from the updated modeling that new technologies are needed in some sectors to achieve zero carbon, says BEC.

In both scenarios, most of the residual emissions come from sectors in which the model did not have low-emission technologies. About half of these residual emissions come from aviation, shipping and fishing vessels.

“While there are potential low-emission options known in these areas, these were not well-defined enough to be included in the model, or too expensive for the model to choose.

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